Guide

How Oddsprey builds its predictions, what value means, and how we size stakes. Read this once and the rest of the app makes sense.

What Oddsprey does

We rate every fixture with a statistical model, then write up the matches worth a closer look. The aim is one thing: find bets priced higher than their real chance of winning.

Each match we cover comes with:

An analyst write-up. The reasoning behind the call, in plain language.
A correct-score read. The most likely scorelines and how confident we are.
Value bets. The exact markets where our number beats the bookmaker's, with the edge shown.

Reading odds

Odds are the bookmaker's price on an outcome. They also tell you the payout.

Decimal odds

The standard across Europe. Odds of 2.50 return €2.50 for every €1 staked, your stake included. Return = stake × odds.

Implied probability

Flip the odds to get a probability. 2.50 works out to 40% (1 ÷ 2.50). That figure carries the bookmaker's margin, so a book's implied chances always add up to more than 100%.

Edge and value

Edge is the gap between our probability and the odds-implied probability. When our number is higher, the bet has value.

Say a team has a 50% chance in our model, but the odds are 2.10 (47.6% implied). That is roughly a 2.4% edge. Back enough spots like that and the maths works in your favour over time.

We flag a bet when three things line up:

Our probability beats the odds-implied probability.
The edge is big enough to be worth the risk.
The market has not corrected the price yet.

How we size stakes

Every stake comes from the Kelly criterion. Kelly ties the bet to the edge: more edge, more stake, but never so much that a bad run wipes you out.

The formula

Kelly % = (edge × odds − 1) / (odds − 1).

How we apply it

We stake a fraction of full Kelly, usually 10% to 50%, scaled by how much we trust the number and how big the edge is. On a €1,000 bankroll, a 2% Kelly call is a €20 bet. Fractional Kelly grows the account on winners and cushions the losing weeks.

How the numbers are built

We start from data and finish with a review.

Match history. Goals, shots, and expected goals (xG) across each team's record.
Team form. Recent results, home and away splits, availability.
Market odds. Live prices from several bookmakers.
Context. Injuries, suspensions, and what the raw data misses.

The core model is Dixon-Coles, a standard method for football scorelines. We calibrate it against past results, then our analyst writes up the standout matches and flags the risk and context the model alone would miss. Every prediction is checked against its outcome, and the misses feed back into the next run.

What a subscription gets you

Every settled result is free, forever. That is our track record, open to anyone. A subscription opens the upcoming matches:

Every fixture, every market.
The full analyst write-up and reasoning.
Correct-score top-3 picks.
Kelly-sized value bets.
Your complete performance history.

New accounts get a free month with everything open. No card up front.

Common questions

How accurate are the predictions?

See for yourself on the Results page. We track win rate, ROI, and profit or loss for every bet we have ever posted. It varies by market, league, and stretch of time. Over a long enough run, a real edge shows up in the numbers.

What do I get for free?

Every settled result, one sample match in full, and the model's chances for all fixtures. New accounts also get a free month with every match open. After that you can subscribe or stay on the free tier.

Should I follow every bet?

No. Each one stands on its own. Only bet when you agree with the read and the price you can get still holds the edge. We give you the analysis; the call is yours.

How do I use the suggested stakes?

They are already sized with fractional Kelly for a €1,000 bankroll, so scale them to yours. Want less risk? Take a smaller fraction. Never stake more than the suggested amount.

Can I lose money?

Yes. Betting carries risk, always. Even a real edge loses over short stretches, because variance is real. Our numbers improve the long-run return; they do not guarantee any single bet. Only stake what you can afford to lose.

Getting started

Create a free account to start your free month. Every match is open, with nothing to pay up front.

Want the plans first? They are on the pricing page.